Update on 2019-nCoV: part 11 – where will it end?

I’m sure we’ve all been following the emerging story of the 2019-nCoV outbreak closely, with the third cases reported in the UK yesterday (pleased to see this is where you’d expect the UK to be based on Marc’s post earlier)! There’s been a small explosion of publications in the peer reviewed literature. I’ve chosen one slightly randomly to discuss today: a short modelling study providing some insight on the likely volume of unreported cases (very much the ice berg and not the tip!) and some sense of where this outbreak will end (it depends on how we respond, globally).

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Novel coronavirus outbreak: an update

I posted at the beginning of last week about the emergence of the as-yet-formally-unnamed novel coronavirus that has emerged in China. At that stage, it could have been a parochial anomaly in the annals of ID history. What a difference a week makes! Now we are looking at a rapidly emerging international outbreak!

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Who’s looking for CPE in English hospitals?

A team of authors surveyed NHS acute hospitals in England to determine the approach to CPE detection, including laboratory methods. The findings provide an opportunity to compare the approach to CPE detection and prevalence nationally, identifying higher CPE prevalence in the North-West, North-East and the South-East (the region that includes London) of England. The findings also suggest that more screening for CPE would detect more carriers – and perhaps help to prevent a silent epidemic of CPE in some regions.

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KPC Casanova carbapenemase

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The risk of interspecies transmission of carbapenemase genes is a real concern. We can barely get our heads around many different types of carbapenemase in a whole host of Gram-negative bacteria (compare the relative simplicity of methicillin resistance in S. aureus: a single gene, in a single species). Throw in interspecies horizontal transmission of carbapenemases and things get really tricky! Do we implement different control strategies to try to interrupt the transmission of carbapenemases (in contrast to the organisms themselves)? Could you have a multispecies outbreak of a carbapenemase on your hands and not even realise it?

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Norovirus – The organisation’s IPC ‘Canary’

5136479476_0d76640581_bIt’s the most Chunderful time of the year (or maybe not). The Norovirus ‘season’ will still be on us and a few points are well worth reflecting on. A recent systematic review of Norovirus risk in high and middle-income countries asserts that there may be as many as 12.5 million infections annually these countries alone, with possibly as many as 2.2 million outpatient visits related to the illness. Personally I have always liked having a bit of norovirus around. Keeps the staff on their toes and gives a good indicator of how IPC is really being performed rather than another set of 99% compliant hand hygiene audits.

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