An interesting modelling study has quantified the size of the CPE iceberg lurking under the water when CPE is only detected by clinical cultures and no active screening is done. And the CPE iceberg is larger than you may think!
BMC Medicine has published some research from our group reporting the findings of a mathematical model comparing various approaches to screening for CPE carriage. The model compared how several operational metrics varied with different approaches to screening (‘slow and cheap’ laboratory culture vs. ‘fast and expensive’ PCR) and in various specialties with variable levels of compliance with CPE admission screening and at various levels of admission prevalence of CPE. The main conclusion was that culture proved to be the best approach in most scenarios, balancing risk and resource.
Jon posted a blog last week on mupirocin resistance in MRSA. This week, guest blogger Dr Gwen Knight (bio below) writes about a companion paper also published in the Journal of Antimicrobial Chemotherapy, which models mupirocin resistance…
It is a truth universally acknowledged, that acquiring most mechanisms of drug resistance incurs a fitness cost to the host bacterium. Determining the size of this cost and the impact that this cost will have on the spread of drug resistance is difficult. Is a 10% reduction in growth rate in the laboratory enough to stop resistance spreading in a hospital?
Some fascinating modelling from the CDC Vital Signs programme suggests that a co-ordinated, multi-facilitiy approach will be much more effective than each hospital doing its own prevention interventions.
The team first estimated the burden of key infections in the US: CRE, multi-resistant P. aeruginosa, invasive MRSA and CDI combined were responsible for 310,000 infections in 2011, which would increase 10% to 340,000 over 5 years. However, with an ‘aggressive’ national intervention, this could be reduced to below 200,000 by 2019. It would be a huge undertaking to implement and co-ordinate a national campaign in the US, where there is so much heterogeneity in the way that hospitals are structured and funded. But if anybody can do it, the CDC can!