We tend to find that the flu season in Australia is an early predictor for the severity of the coming flu season in the Europe. And the early indications are the flu in Aus this year is bad – unprecedentedly bad. So, let’s get our flu vaccination campaign planning hats on!
First, let me explain yet another reference to the 1980s. One of the first computer games I ever played was ‘It came from the desert’. Naff doesn’t even begin to describe this by modern standards. But then it was the 1980s so competition was sparse!
There is an alarming report recently published by the Australian Department of Health illustrating that the influenza season has started early in Australia, and that the levels of confirm flu cases has already reached the sort of peak you’d expect to see mid-winter (July/August time) (Figures 1 and 2). Unsurprisingly, this has prompted extensive coverage in the media. The WHO’s Flunet confirms that flu season has started early in Aus and elsewhere.
Figure 1: Per cent of calls to Healthdirect related to ILI, Australia, 1 January 2014 to 2 June 2019, by month and week of call.
Figure 2: Notifications of laboratory confirmed influenza, Australia, 1 January 2014 to 2 June 2019, by month and week of diagnosis.
This could well mean that we have a severe flu season to look forward to come autumn and winter in Europe (and US for that matter): there’s some evidence that you can use Australian flu data as an early predictor of European and US flu seasons. So, now would be a good time to convince anybody who will listen (colleagues, patients, friends, family!) that influenza vaccination makes sense…
Reflections on Infection Prevention and Control 
As to what is driving this. I am sure that lab diagnosis is improving – and hospital labs are likely introducing point of care / molecular panels. But this has been happening steadily so won’t explain this apparent step-change.
The media coverage will drive people with ILI towards influenza testing. But whilst this may amplify a bad season, it doesn’t explain an early start or the initial increases.
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I spread thise news to my partners and colleagues. Thanks for the worning.
On Wed, 19 Jun 2019, 09:44 Reflections on Infection Prevention and Control, wrote:
> Jon Otter (@jonotter) posted: ” We tend to find that the flu season in > Australia is an early predictor for the severity of the coming flu season > in the Europe. And the early indications are the flu in Aus this year is > bad – unprecedentedly bad. So, let’s get our flu vaccination camp” >
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Hey Jon,
Could you point me to the documented trend whereby our season predicts or precedes yours?
-Ian
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Hi Ian – I need to set the record straight here – I made an assumption based on the “word on the street” that the flu season down under somehow predicts the flu season in the UK. But having looked for evidence to support this, there doesn’t seem to be anything convincing – unless I’ve missed something?!
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What is your opinion about the contamination of the coronavirus by ear?
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