My last post on Omicron was on 22/12/2021, 15 days ago, which seems like a lifetime ago! Back then, there was a great deal of uncertainty about how Omicron would manifest clinically, and how this would translate into hospitalisations and deaths. We now known more, but there is still considerable uncertainty. The latest technical briefing from UKHSA provides additional epidemiological updates. And the latest ONS study on prevalence in the UK gives us some eye-watering figures: in the week ending 31/12/2021, 1 in 25 people in England were infected with COVID-19, and 1 in 15 people in London. There’s a lot of it about. Overall, the outlook is looking better, but it’s going to be a very bumpy ride for those working in healthcare over the next month or so.Continue reading
A very sobering piece published in NEJM Catalyst Innovations in Care Delivery (a new digital journal in the NEJM group) describes a catastrophic situation in a hospital in Bergamo, Italy, which has been overrun by COVID-19. We all have much to learn from this experience: about pandemic preparedness, response, and the key role of IPC at all stages of this pandemic.
The UK government yesterday announced a far-reaching package of social distancing measures to suppress the spread of COVID-19. These are based on some Imperial College London modelling work, published here. The model predicts that the UK approach to mitigate the impact of the UK epidemic would indeed reduce the overall number of people affected and those who die, but would still leave hundreds of thousands dead in an overwhelmed healthcare system. In contrast, a more intensive suppression approach would be effective in reversing the epidemic trend and keep the number of new cases to a low level – in the short term, at least.
We tend to find that the flu season in Australia is an early predictor for the severity of the coming flu season in the Europe. And the early indications are the flu in Aus this year is bad – unprecedentedly bad. So, let’s get our flu vaccination campaign planning hats on!